WASHINGTON, September 22 — More than 5.2 million people across the Americas are affected, exposed to risk, or experiencing acute food insecurity as a strengthening El Niño drives drought, wildfires and flooding through the region, the Pan American Health Organization said in its first regional situation report on the phenomenon, released September 18. The economic exposure runs through agriculture, water systems and health infrastructure.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27. Eight countries or territories have issued official emergency declarations or alerts related to El Niño threats, PAHO reported.
The agency’s monitoring identified eight countries or territories with active drought or water shortages, six facing wildfires with health impacts or risks, and five reporting damage from heavy rainfall or flooding.
Dry Corridor under pressure
In Central America’s Dry Corridor — particularly Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador — drought is affecting water availability, agricultural production and food security. In Guatemala, nearly three million people face critical levels of food insecurity. Honduras reports between 1.8 and 2.2 million people affected by acute food insecurity.
PAHO cautioned that not all recent events have been directly attributed to El Niño, even as it reported that impacts are already being seen. Peru is experiencing one of the most severe situations, with heavy rains, flooding and landslides causing at least 70 deaths between December 2025 and August 2026 and affecting more than 600 health facilities.
Colombia faces wildfires, heavy rainfall and an active dengue outbreak, along with risks linked to malaria and yellow fever.
Amazon warning signs
Brazil shows significant environmental warning signs, including declining water levels across the Amazon Basin and worsening air quality linked to wildfires. In 630 municipalities, fine particulate matter levels have been recorded above World Health Organization guideline levels. In the Caribbean, Jamaica, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago are reporting drought conditions and water scarcity risks, while Southern Cone countries maintain preparedness measures for increased rainfall and flooding.
The report identifies health risks including extreme heat, vector-borne and water-borne diseases, deteriorating air quality, and disruptions to essential health services. Health facilities remain vulnerable to infrastructure damage, interruptions in water and power supplies, impacts on supply chains and vaccination programs, and reduced access to health care.
Dr. Ciro Ugarte, Director of PAHO’s Department of Health Emergencies, said the threat should be treated as a health emergency, not only a climate one. “El Niño is not just a climate phenomenon. It can affect people’s health in many ways, from food insecurity and vector-borne and water-borne diseases to disruptions in health services,” he said.
“With a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event, this is a risk countries should take seriously and prepare for now.” PAHO noted that previous El Niño episodes have coincided with major public health emergencies, including the reemergence of diseases. What to watch next is whether the eight countries and territories that have issued emergency declarations or alerts convert those into funded health and water responses before the Northern Hemisphere winter peak.
For commodity markets, the drought signal from the Dry Corridor and the Amazon Basin will matter most in the months ahead.
