BRUSSELS, October 13 — The European Union stands at a crossroads as economic coercion from major powers intensifies, yet a key tool designed to counter such pressure remains unused nearly three years after its adoption. The Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), established in November 2023 to address gaps in responding to economic pressure used for political leverage, has never been activated despite growing threats. What unfolded since 2018 paints a concerning picture of mounting economic pressure on the EU.
According to an ISPI dataset analyzed in an October 8 report, China, the United States, and Russia account for the majority of coercive episodes. Once weighted by severity, China is responsible for 54% of total economic pressure on the EU, compared to 20% for the United States and 17% for Russia.
Economic coercion has risen steadily since 2018, involving tariffs, sanctions, trade restrictions, and export controls aimed not only at commercial advantage but at influencing EU political decisions. The ACI’s development was accelerated by key events that exposed Europe’s vulnerabilities. In 2019, the United States threatened tariffs against France over its digital services tax.
In 2021, China imposed trade restrictions on Lithuania after it allowed a Taiwanese representative office to open. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Europe recognized its strategic vulnerability due to dependence on Russian energy.
China’s coercive tactics often operate quietly, leveraging its control of over 90% of global refining capacity for rare earths and permanent magnets. In spring 2025, after new U.S. tariffs were announced, China introduced export licensing requirements for rare earths and related products, causing sharp declines in permanent-magnet exports without a formal embargo, disrupting European industry and highlighting Europe’s dependence on Chinese inputs. The ISPI analysis builds on a study for the European Parliament that assigned severity scores to coercion episodes to create an index of overall economic pressure facing Europe.
The report notes that economic interdependence can no longer be assumed politically neutral, especially as former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to the White House and Chinese coercive pressure increases. The ACI represents Europe’s attempt to level the playing field, but its unused status raises questions about both the political will to employ it and the tool’s effectiveness. For those involved in European trade and diplomacy, the instrument remains a theoretical rather than practical solution to very real economic threats.
As the global economic landscape continues to shift, the EU faces critical decisions about how to protect its interests without escalating tensions. The ACI may eventually be deployed, but its existence alone hasn’t deterred the growing economic pressure from major powers that continues to reshape Europe’s position in the world.
